Heading Into 2027: 5 Things to Watch in the Sioux Falls Housing Market

Nobody can reliably predict where the market will be a year from now, and I'd be skeptical of anyone who says otherwise. What you can do is track the indicators that tend to shape it. Here are the five I'm watching as the year closes.

1. Mortgage Rates

Rates were reported near 7.4 percent in mid-October, up from roughly 6.3 percent a year earlier. Whether they ease or climb further will influence how many buyers can qualify and how much they can afford. Watch the direction, not just the number.

2. Inventory

Mid-year data showed active listings in the Sioux Falls metro down about 11 percent year over year, with roughly 3.5 months of supply. If more owners decide to list, or builders add more homes, supply could loosen. If not, it stays tight.

3. Price Growth

The metro median sale price was up about 4 percent in the first half of 2026, per Redfin, and the Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire reported about 5 percent growth for May. Steady growth is different from rapid growth. Watch whether the pace holds, slows, or picks up.

4. Speed of Sales

Around 36 percent of homes sold within two weeks in the first half of the year. If that share shrinks, it may signal buyers are becoming more selective. If it grows, competition may be building.

5. New Construction Activity

New builds add supply and influence pricing across the market, especially for buyers looking at suburbs. Pay attention to what's being built, at what price points, and how quickly it sells.

How to Use These Indicators

If you're a buyer, tracking these can help you decide when to act and how much flexibility you'll have. If you're a seller, they can help you decide when to list and how to price. None of them replaces a look at your specific neighborhood and price range.

What I Won't Do

I won't guess at a specific number for next year's prices or rates. What I can do is help you make a sound plan that holds up under a few different scenarios.

The Bottom Line

Good decisions come from good information and realistic expectations. Keep an eye on these five indicators, and we'll adjust the plan as things change.